FOLLOW US: @TheStatesmanLtd @thestatesmanltd thestatesman1875 www.thestatesman.com People’s Parliament, Always in Session India’s National Newspaper since 1818 | Pages 12 | ` 5.00 | KOLKATA | NEW DELHI | MUMBAI | BHUBANESWAR | LUCKNOW | SILIGURI | Friday, 01 May 2026 SPORTS WORLD Priced prudence Arsenal, Atletico exchange penalty goals in 1-1 draw in first leg of Champions League semifinals Page 6 Page 12 US blockade is squeezing Iran’s oil industry Page 10 EDITORIAL Mamata Banerjee rejects exit polls, alleges BJP conspiracy STATESMAN NEWS SERVICE ‘BJP confident of victory in Bengal’: Kolkata, 30 April Kolkata: Union Minister and West Bengal former BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar today expressed unwavering confidence of a saffron surge, dismissing exit poll scepticism in favour of “ground realities”. Speaking to the Press after the conclusion of the second and final phase of polling, Majumdar interpreted the robust voter participation across the state as a clear signal of anti-incumbency. He argued that the enthusiasm seen at the polling booths is a direct indictment of the ruling Trinamul Congress (TMC). “The people of the state have voted in favour of the BJP. The high voter turnout in the elections shows that the public has voted against the TMC,” the Union Minister said. A day after the completion of poll in West Bengal, Trinamul Congress chairperson Mamata Banerjee on Thursday strongly rejected the exit poll projections for the ongoing Assembly elections, calling them part of a “well-planned conspiracy” by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to manipulate public perception. In a 9-minute video message posted on her X handle following the second phase of polling, Miss Banerjee expressed confidence that the ruling All India Trinamul Congress (TMC) would secure a decisive mandate, crossing the 226-seat mark in the 294-member Assembly. Addressing the people of the state, Miss Banerjee began by thanking voters for braving extreme weather conditions to exercise their democratic rights. “We are all grateful for casting your vote despite excessive heat,” she said, adding, “I am also grateful to our party workers who, despite enduring torture by the central forces, local forces, and the central government machinery, stood firm.” She launched a scathing attack on the BJP leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, alleging misuse of power and resources. “Those who wanted to seize us have been seized in the ballot box,” she remarked, claiming that leaders and machinery from “19 BJPruled states” were mobilised against her party. Refuting the exit poll results that predicted a BJP majority, Miss Banerjee alleged that the projections were “manufactured” and circulated under pressure. “I want to assure you that what is being shown on television was circulated from the BJP office at 1:08 p.m. Money was given to ensure it is aired. I can say with confidence that we will cross 226. I have faith in the people’s mandate,” she said. “We may even reach 230 seats. The way people have voted gives me complete confidence,” she said. Terming the exit polls as BJP’s “last card,” she alleged a larger economic motive behind their dissemination. “I have specific information that the share market might crumble. To keep it steady, they played this game,” she claimed. Axis My India withholds Bengal exit poll, Today’s Chanakya predicts BJP sweep STATESMAN NEWS SERVICE New Delhi, 30 April Axis My India on Thursday said it would withhold its exit poll estimates for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, citing serious methodological concerns arising from an unusually high voter non-response rate. In a press release dated 30 April, Axis My India chairman Pradeep Gupta said the agency had conducted an extensive field exercise across all 294 Assembly constituencies over the past seven days. The operation deployed 80 trained surveyors in 16 independent field units and covered a sample of over 13,250 respondents. However, the exercise ran into what Mr Gupta described as an “atypical and statistically significant challenge.” Nearly 70 per cent of voters approached during the survey declined to participate ~ a non-response rate the agency called “exceptionally high” and “materially” beyond historical norms. “While some degree of respondent hesitancy is factored into our sampling models, a refusal rate of this magnitude materially exceeds historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias,” Mr Gupta said. In a closely fought electoral contest, such bias can significantly undermine the reliability of vote-share estimates, he stated. “The risk of skew arising from selective disclosure and silent voter behaviour becomes disproportionately high, thereby limiting the robustness of any derived projections.” Following a detailed internal review of data quality, response distribution, and statistical confidence levels, the organisation decided against publishing the estimates, Mr Gupta stated. The Statesman, in some of its editions dated 30 April 2026, had carried a report that erroneously attributed a seat projection to Axis MyIndia, stating that it forecast a TMC victory with 177–187 seats and placed the BJP at 142–171 seats. The attribution was incorrect and was likely drawn inadvertently from another pollster’s estimates. Meanwhile, public opinion firm Today’s Chanakya, in its latest analysis, projected a significant setback for the TMC-led alliance in Bengal, predicting that the BJP could get 192 seats (plus/minus 11 seats) and the Trinamul Congress 100 seats (plus/minus 11 seats). The rest could get two seats (plus/minus two seats). The firm also released projections for other pollbound states. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is expected to retain power, though the emergence of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has added a new dimension to the electoral landscape. In Kerala, Today’s Chanakya predicted a close contest but gave the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) an edge at 69 ± 9 seats. In Assam, the projections indicate a strong consolidation in favour of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is expected to secure a massive 102 ± 9 seats along with an estimated 50 per cent vote share. India recognised for IT, Pakistan for ‘international terrorism’: Rajnath Singh SC refuses to hear AIIMS plea against terminating 30-week-old pregnancy of a minor girl, urges rethink on abortion law STATESMAN NEWS SERVICE New Delhi, 30 April New Delhi, 30 April Delivering a sharp rebuke over Pakistan’s continued backing of terrorism, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday said that while both nations gained independence together, India is today globally recognised for “Information Technology”, whereas Pakistan has come to be seen as the epicentre of “International Terrorism”, underscoring a hardened shift in India’s response to cross-border terror. Addressing a National Security Summit in the national capital, Mr Singh said: “Both, India and Pakistan attained independence at the same time. However, today India is recognised globally for IT i.e., ‘Information Technology’, while Pakistan is regarded as the epicentre of a different IT i.e., ‘International Terrorism’”. In a sharp articulation of India’s evolving security doctrine, the defence minister asserted that Operation Sindoor marks a decisive shift from the earlier practice of limited diplomatic responses to terror attacks, underscoring the government’s resolve to confront terrorism with firm and calibrated military action. He said that the operation highlighted India’s tri-service combat capability and was executed and concluded entirely on the nation’s own terms, sending a clear global message of strategic resolve and operational confidence. “Operation Sindoor conveyed an unequivocal global message that India is no longer bound by the old mindset of merely issuing diplomatic statements when terror attacks are perpetrated on its soil, and that Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi-led Government has moved beyond mere intent and rhetoric by demonstrating its unwavering commitment through decisive action,” Mr Singh said in his address. “Terrorism emanates from a distorted and perverse mindset. It casts a dark stain on humanity. The battle against terrorism is not merely a matter of national security; it is, fundamentally, a battle to safeguard the core values of humanity. It is a fight against a barbaric ideology that stands in direct opposition to every human value. We have articulated this Indian perspective, both within the country and abroad,” said the Minister. He further added that as long as terrorism exists, it will continue to challenge collective peace, development, and prosperity. “Attempts are made to justify terrorism by giving it a religious colour or linking it to a violent ideology such as Naxalism. This is extremely dangerous and, in a way, provides cover fire to terrorists so they can slowly advance toward their goal. Terrorism is not just an anti-national act; it has multiple dimensionsoperational, ideological, and political. It can only be dealt with if we tackle all these dimensions,” he said. PARMOD KUMAR The Supreme Court on Thursday refused to entertain a curative petition filed by AIIMS, Delhi, against its earlier direction permitting termination of a more than 30-week pregnancy of a 15-year-old rape survivor, making it clear that the final decision must rest with the minor and her parents, not the medical institution. A Bench of Chief Justice Surya Kant and Justice Joymalya Bagchi emphasised that the choice to continue or terminate the pregnancy cannot be taken away from the individual concerned. The Court said AIIMS could place medical facts before the family, but it would not allow any institution to decide on their behalf. Justice Bagchi underlined the need to respect individual autonomy, stating: “Give respect to your citizen. Show data to the parents and if they choose to keep it, then so be it. But if they think the mental health is in jeopardy, they will take a call.” The Court indicated that the minor and her parents must be counselled comprehensively, with full disclosure of medical risks and outcomes by specialists, so that they can take an informed decision. It clarified that once such counselling is done, the Court would consider the course chosen by the family. AIIMS had approached the Court seeking reconsideration of its earlier order, citing medical concerns over late-stage termination and suggesting that continuation of pregnancy could improve the chances of survival of the foetus. However, the Bench was not persuaded to revisit its decision, observing that the matter should not turn into an adversarial contest between the State and the victim. “Let us not make a fight between the State and its citizens. We will not allow the institution to choose. The institution can convey it to the parents. They will decide,” stated Justice Bagchi. The court stressed that an unwanted pregnancy, particularly in cases of rape involving a minor, cannot be imposed upon the victim. They also cautioned against shifting the focus entirely to the foetus at the cost of the survivor’s physical and mental well-being. There is “too much focus on the child (foetus) and not the mother who has gone through such pain,” Chief Justice Surya Kant remarked. Vietnam President To Lam to Double whammy: How geopolitics, visit India, boost strategic ties El Niño are posing a threat to kharif paddy STATESMAN NEWS SERVICE New Delhi, 30 April To Lam, President of Vietnam, will undertake a state visit to India from 5 to 7 May at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to inject fresh momentum into bilateral ties while exploring new avenues of cooperation across multiple sectors. This marks President To Lam’s first visit to India since assuming office in April this year. The visit comes as both countries mark a decade of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The Vietnamese leader will be accompanied by a highlevel delegation, including ministers, senior government officials, and a strong business contingent, underlining the growing economic and strategic engagement between the two countries. On 6 May, President To Lam will receive a ceremonial welcome at Rashtrapati Bhavan. He is scheduled to hold wide-ranging talks with Prime Minister Modi, covering the full spectrum of bilateral relations as well as key regional and global issues. During the visit, he will also meet President Droupadi Murmu, while other senior Indian leaders are expected to call on him. In addition to official engagements in New Delhi, President To Lam will travel to Bodh Gaya and Mumbai. India and Vietnam share longstanding historical and civilizational ties, rooted in shared anti-colonial struggles and reinforced through decades of diplomatic engagement since 1972. The relationship was elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2016 during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Viet Nam and is guided by the 2020 Joint Vision for Peace, Prosperity, and People. Vietnam is a key partner in India’s Act East Policy. Vietnam is currently India’s 15th largest trading partner and 4th largest in ASEAN. Over the years, bilateral ties have expanded across political, economic, defence, and cultural domains. Trade between the two countries stands at around USD 16 billion in 2025-2026, with growing cooperation in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology. Defence and security collaboration has also deepened through regular exchanges, joint exercises, and capacitybuilding initiatives. VIBHA SHARMA New Delhi, 30 April As India battles a severe heat wave amid fears of an El Niño–driven underperforming monsoon, the agriculture sector is facing another challenge this kharif season: potential fertiliser supply disruptions linked to the West Asia crisis. Experts warn this twin stress could impact crop production, particularly paddy. Ranjit Singh Jossan, vice-president of the Basmati Rice Millers and Exporters Association of Punjab, says that high temperatures during the grain-filling stage could reduce both yield and quality. “Estimated yield losses could range from 5–10 per cent under mild stress, 10–15 per cent under moderate El Niño conditions, and up to 15–25 per cent in severe scenarios,” he adds. Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh ~ the major basmati-producing states ~ are likely to be affected. While Punjab and Haryana have the benefit of canal and tubewell irrigation, reduced rainfall and rising temperatures may still lead to ground water stress and power issues. Uttar Pradesh, where 70–80 per cent of paddy cultivation depends on monsoon rainfall, is expected to be more vulnerable, says Mr Jossan. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country is expected to see below normal rains in the 2026 monsoon season. In north India, the shortfall could range between 10 per cent and 20 per cent, with some districts facing deficits of up to 25 per cent, indicating significant regional stress, according to experts. The June–September monsoon accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, with peak precipitation in July and August contributing 60–70 per cent to the season, therefore any disruption during this critical period can significantly affect agriculture. El Niño conditions typically weaken monsoon winds, delay onset and cause uneven rainfall distribution. Global studies show rice yields have declined by 7–10 per cent during previous El Niño years, while warmer and drier conditions also increase the risk of pests and diseases. Adding to agriculture concerns is fertiliser availability, especially urea. Despite increased domestic production, India still imports 25–30 per cent of its urea requirement, mainly from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the government maintains that stocks are adequate, field reports suggest a possible shortage of 10–15 per cent during the peak kharif season, according to Mr Jossan. “Paddy cultivation is highly dependent on nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea, with farmers typically requiring two to three bags per acre. Any delay or shortage can reduce tillering and plant vigour, leading to yield losses of 15–20 per cent under stress conditions. Reports also indicate risks of black marketing and panic buying, which could further restrict access for small and marginal farmers,” he says, adding that the cost of diesel, electricity and labour are already adding to their financial burden.